Climate Change and the Revival of Cold War Rivalries: A Neorealist Study of Arctic Geopolitics

Abstract

Climate change-induced warming is slowly transforming the Arctic frozen frontier into a strategic fault line of the 21st century. This paper argues that climate change acts as a structural catalyst for rivalry and struggle for relative gains, intensifying the security dilemma among global powers—Russia, the United States, and China—by unlocking sea routes and exposing resources at an unprecedented rate. The study analyzes Moscow's militarization, territorial tactics, and energy projects; Washington's alliances and some of its own deterrence and freedom-of-navigation postures; and Beijing's economic and scientific diplomacy in accord with Neo-realism as indicative of struggles for relative gains rather than cooperative governance. Modern forms of militarization, backed by bloc postures, harken to the Cold War period; however, the Arctic competition today stands out for its multipolarity, with China emerging as the third actor, and institutions playing a limited role. The study concludes that while the Arctic is unlikely to evolve into a full-scale Cold War 2.0, it will continue to be shaped by a managed security dilemma, marked by persistent tension, ongoing militarization, and the structural impacts of climate change.