Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier: Impacts on South Asian Political Stability

Abstract

This quantitative study investigates climate change as a threat multiplier to political stability in South Asia, focusing on Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan from 2000 to 2025. Using longitudinal data from the World Bank Governance Indicators, ERA5 climate reanalysis, and the EM-DAT disaster database, the analysis examines trends in temperature anomalies, extreme weather events, and political stability scores. Pearson correlation results show strong negative relationships between temperature anomalies and political stability, especially in Pakistan (r = –0.72) and Afghanistan (r = –0.65), indicating that climate variability worsens governance challenges in fragile states. The frequency and intensity of extreme events—such as the 2022 Pakistan floods and 2024 Bangladesh heatwave—demonstrate a clear upward trend, with recent 2025 monsoon floods in Pakistan and India emphasizing the urgent need for climate adaptation measures. Findings suggest that rising climate hazards interact with social and political vulnerabilities to increase instability, calling for integrated climate-security policies and regional cooperation efforts. This study adds to the literature on climate-security linkages by providing empirical evidence from a high-risk geopolitical region, offering valuable insights for policymakers, international organizations, and security planners working to build resilience against escalating climate threats.