The Arctic: A New Theater of Great Power Competition

Abstract

The Arctic warms at four times the global average, reducing summer sea ice extent by 40% since 1979, unlocking previously inaccessible resources, and shipping corridors. By 2025, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) offers seasonal commercial viability, cutting Asia-Europe transit times by 40% compared to Suez routes.  This shift has sparked intense competition among great powers, including Russia, China, America and NATO member states, as they seek to assert their influence, secure resources, and gain strategic advantages in the region. This study provides an in-depth examination of the strategies employed by these nations in the Arctic, with a particular focus on the militarization of Arctic trade routes and the role of indigenous communities in shaping regional security policies. By analyzing the actions and motivations of these key players, this research aims to shed light on the complex dynamics at play in the Arctic and the implications for regional stability and global security. Our findings indicate that the Arctic is rapidly becoming a contested region, with nations striving for control over resources, trade routes, and strategic territories. The militarization of Arctic trade routes, such as the Northern Sea Route, has become a critical aspect of this competition, with nations seeking to assert their dominance and protect their interests. The study also highlights the importance of indigenous communities in the Arctic, who have traditionally inhabited the region and possess valuable knowledge and perspectives. However, their role in regional security policies remains limited, and their interests are often overlooked in the face of great power competition. This paper aims to analyze the emerging competition in the Arctic through the lens of these actors, discussing their strategic objectives, capabilities, and challenges. Given the region’s dynamic nature and its implications for international stability, understanding these competing interests is vital for policymakers, security analysts, and environmental stakeholders.