Sanctions and Strategic Autonomy: How BRI Helps Iran Bypass Western Isolation

Abstract

This study examines how Iran has leveraged China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to navigate decades of Western sanctions and reinforce its strategic autonomy within an evolving multipolar world order. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has endured multiple waves of U.S. and EU sanctions targeting its oil sector, banking systems, and international trade networks. The re-imposition of sanctions following the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 exacerbated economic contraction, inflation, and diplomatic isolation. In response, Tehran adopted a “Look East” strategy, culminating in its deep integration with the BRI through the 25-Year Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation Agreement with China in 2021. Employing a mixed-methods approach that integrates quantitative economic data with qualitative policy analysis, this research reveals that BRI engagement has provided Iran with critical economic lifelines and diplomatic flexibility. Between 2020 and 2023, Iran’s oil exports rose from 0.3 to 1.3 million barrels per day, largely facilitated by BRI-linked logistical and financial networks. Projects such as the Tehran–Mashhad Railway, Jask Oil Terminal, and Chabahar Port exemplify how BRI infrastructure enhanced Iran’s trade capacity while yuan-based settlements and barter mechanisms reduced its dependence on the dollar and SWIFT system. Strategically, BRI participation has expanded Iran’s involvement in non-Western institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), enhancing its diplomatic leverage and embedding it within a broader Eurasian economic architecture. However, the study also identifies structural vulnerabilities, including overdependence on China, project delays, and limited domestic diversification, which constrain Iran’s full strategic autonomy. Overall, the findings argue that while the BRI has not entirely neutralized Western sanctions, it has substantially mitigated their impact by providing Iran with alternative trade corridors, financial systems, and geopolitical alliances. The Iran China partnership thus symbolizes a transformative shift in the international political economy, reflecting the gradual erosion of Western economic dominance and the consolidation of a more multipolar, interconnected global order.