The Quad-ASEAN Dynamic: Security Cooperation, Strategic Hedging, and the Future of ASEAN Centrality

Abstract

In the evolving geopolitical landscape of Indo-Pacific, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and ASEAN are the two most important regional groupings. This paper analyzes the interactions between the two groups, focusing on their security objectives, the implications of strategic hedging by ASEAN member states, and the contentious future of ASEAN's relevance. ASEAN is committed to maintaining a regional framework characterized by inclusion, multilateralism, and non-alignment, despite the growing importance of the Quad as a platform for technical cooperation, democratic resilience, and maritime security. This paper argues that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces two critical imperatives regarding the Quad: the first involves engaging with major powers to secure economic and strategic advantages, while the second highlights the importance of avoiding zero-sum rivalries, especially between China and the United States. This has prompted ASEAN members to adopt diverse strategies, reflecting their unique views on economic dependence, alliance structures, and the challenges they face. As the Quad formalizes and expands its operational agenda, concerns have arisen regarding its ability to supplant or augment ASEAN-led initiatives, such as the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Regional Forum. Paper argues that ASEAN's future significance relies on its ability to sustain unity while adjusting to a multipolar framework. To sustain its significance in the contested Indo-Pacific region, ASEAN must focus on strengthening internal cohesion, augmenting strategic autonomy, and fostering constructive dialogue with external partners.