AI Geopolitics: Competition for Technological Dominance

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly reshaping global power by linking technological innovation with economic competitiveness, national security, military capability, and geopolitical influence. This study, “AI Geopolitics: Competition for Technological Dominance,” examines how AI is transforming international competition, particularly the strategic rivalry between the United States and China. Using a qualitative-dominant comparative design supported by quantitative secondary evidence, the study analyses AI research and innovation, frontier models, semiconductors, computing infrastructure, investment, talent, data, military applications, technological statecraft, and international governance. Drawing on neorealism, complex interdependence, and dependency theory, it demonstrates that AI has become a multidimensional source of national power. The United States maintains major advantages in frontier AI, private investment, cloud infrastructure, semiconductor design, and research ecosystems, while China has developed significant capabilities in AI research, patents, industrial deployment, manufacturing, robotics, and technological self-reliance. The study further finds that advanced semiconductors, computing capacity, data centers, energy, talent, and capital are critical foundations of AI power, making technological chokepoints important instruments of geopolitical statecraft. Export controls, industrial policies, investment restrictions, and technology partnerships are therefore reshaping global AI competition. Nevertheless, complete technological decoupling remains unlikely because AI development depends on globally distributed supply chains, multinational corporations, research networks, and interconnected technological infrastructures. The study consequently characterizes the emerging order as “competitive technological interdependence” rather than a conventional AI Cold War. While the United States and China remain the principal competitors, Taiwan, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, India, Gulf states, and other actors hold strategically important positions within the broader AI ecosystem. The study concludes that future AI power will depend not only on superior algorithms but also on control and security of the wider ecosystem of research, talent, capital, data, semiconductors, computing, energy, industrial capacity, standards, and governance, with significant implications for technological sovereignty, international security, global inequality, and the governance of emerging technologies.