Capability-Credibility Gap in US Security Commitments to The GCC: Analyzing Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Diversification

Abstract

The capability-credibility gap in US security commitments to the Gulf Cooperation Council is primarily examined in this study, along with the consequences for Saudi Arabia's evolving security approach in Middle East. The credibility and predictability of US security guarantees have been called into question by recent crises like Israeli strikes on Doha and Iranian retaliatory attacks on US assets in middle East, even though the US maintains a strong military capability and extensive regional base in GCC countries. The paper makes the case that Gulf states particularly KSA are responding by diversifying rather than severing ties with the United States by using Alliance Credibility Theory and Hedging Strategy Theory. This change is further highlighted by the 2026 Iran Gulf escalation, which revealed structural weaknesses in Gulf defense systems in presence of US bases. Because of Pakistan's proven military prowess, especially in air defense, and its long-standing political and religious ties, Saudi Arabia has come to view Pakistan and Turkey as a complementary security partners. The study comes to the conclusion that rather than taking the place of US guarantees, Saudi Arabia's changing stance reflects a hedging strategy in which Pakistan along with Turkey acts as an extra layer of security within a larger multipolar and increasingly unstable regional order.