Hydro-Hegemony and Water Security in South Asia: Reassessing the Indus Waters Treaty in the Twenty-First Century

Abstract

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan with the mediation of the World Bank, has long been regarded as one of the world's most successful transboundary water-sharing agreements. Despite decades of military confrontations and political tensions, the treaty has remained operational, demonstrating remarkable institutional resilience. However, changing geopolitical realities, rapid population growth, climate change, increasing water scarcity, and extensive hydropower development have raised questions regarding its long-term sustainability. This article examines the evolving concept of hydro-hegemony in South Asia and analyzes how upstream–downstream power asymmetries influence regional water governance. Drawing upon hydro-political theory, international water law, and environmental security perspectives, the study explores the strategic implications of India's upstream position and Pakistan's dependence on the Indus River System. The research argues that while the treaty has successfully prevented large-scale water conflicts, emerging environmental and geopolitical challenges require institutional modernization and greater bilateral cooperation. Strengthening hydro-diplomacy, enhancing data sharing, and incorporating climate adaptation into treaty mechanisms are essential for ensuring sustainable water governance and regional stability.