The Iran–United States Strategic Rivalry and the Geopolitics of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb: Assessing Implications for Global Energy Security, Maritime Trade, and Supply Chain Resilience

Abstract

The Iran–United States strategic competition is now increasingly shifting the focus from the chokepoints for the maritime world to the chokepoints of global energy markets, for maritime trade and for supply-chain resilience. The Strait of Hormuz plays a special role since it is used by a significant percentage of seaborne oil and LNG traffic and links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, and acts as a vital maritime gateway between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Recent events show that the precarious situation of these shipping routes can lead to shipping delays, increases in shipping and insurance prices, increased energy-market volatility, and cascading supply-chain vulnerabilities (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2026; Ulrichsen & Krane, 2026). The aim of this qualitative study was to explore the geopolitics of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb in the context of the Iran–U.S. strategic rivalry, and the geopolitical risks this creates for global energy security, maritime trade, and the resilience of supply-chains. Following an interpretivist approach, the research uses qualitative documentary analysis of academic peer-reviewed research, policy reports, institutional publications and authoritative secondary sources, mainly from 2020 to 2026. Thematic analysis is used to identify recurring patterns related to the maritime coercion, chokepoint vulnerability, energy insecurity, trade disruption, geopolitical competition and adaptive supply-chain strategies. The analysis suggests the two chokepoints must be viewed as part of a larger maritime-security framework with the potential for economic repercussions across regions as a result of regional competition. New research also indicates that such extended disruptions may reveal vulnerabilities in the globally integrated supply chain and push for greater diversification, alternative logistics paths, strategic stockpiles, and supply chain agility (Bahgat, 2026; Childs, 2026). Theoretically, the study links geopolitical rivalry and maritime chokepoint theory with the energy-security and supply-chain-resilience frameworks, and it gives weight to the concept of diversification of routes, strategic energy reserves, maritime cooperation, and joint mechanisms for the management of a crisis. It finds that maritime choke points must be viewed not only as geographical passages but also as strategically contested infrastructures, if their disruption can increase risks to economic security.