Food Security, Economic Growth and Agricultural Output Nexus in Developing Countries

Abstract

The study examined the correlation between food security, economic growth, and agricultural production in developing nations. This study employed the secondary data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the FAOSTAT database for the period of 1990 to 2024. The dependent variable used in this study is the Food Security Index (FSI), and the explanatory variables are Agricultural Value Added (AVA), GDP per capita growth (GDPPC), Food Imports (FI), Money supply (M2) and Urban Population Growth (UPG). The Panel ARDL model has been incorporated to analyze the short-term and long-term relationships between the variables. The results demonstrate a positive and significant relationship between agricultural production, economic development and food security in developing countries. Higher agricultural productivity lead to more food available and better rural incomes and economic growth lead to higher household purchasing power and more food available. The results also indicate that the import of food at high levels and high urban population growth has a negative impact on food security. Inflationary pressure and economic instability are also some of the ways by which monetary expansion affected food security. The error correction model proved the presence of a stable long-run relationship between variables. The study had established that sustainable agricultural development and inclusive economic growth is a crucial precondition to enhance food security in developing countries. Thus, it is important for the policymakers to nurture investment in agriculture, adoption of modern farming technologies and food management policies, which in turn would secure the long-term food security and sustainable development.