Exploring the Readiness and Anticipated Impact of Teacher Licensing Systems on Teacher Performance in Pakistan: Evidence from Structural Equation Modelling

Abstract

Teacher licensing has emerged as a widely discussed reform mechanism for strengthening educational quality and professional accountability, yet whether such systems actually change what happens in classrooms depends heavily on institutional readiness, managerial support, and the way teachers themselves perceive the reform. Building directly on the instrument that we designed and validated in our companion methodological paper (Kamal & Saadi, 2025), this study examined the structural relationships among the Teacher Licensing System (TLS), the Role of Management, Potential Challenges, Suggestions for Implementation, and Teacher Performance among secondary-level teachers in Punjab, Pakistan. A structured questionnaire, grounded in that validated instrument, was administered to a stratified random sample of secondary school teachers (N = 770) across rural and urban tehsils of Punjab. Data were analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) in SmartPLS 4, following a two-stage measurement-then-structural model evaluation. All constructs demonstrated strong reliability and convergent validity (Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability > 0.85; AVE = 0.51-0.79), and discriminant validity was confirmed via the Fornell-Larcker criterion. The structural model showed that the Teacher Licensing System (β = 0.494, p < .001) and the Role of Management (β = 0.346, p < .001) were the strongest positive predictors of teachers' Key Performance Indicators, while additional non-teaching responsibilities eroded the benefit of licensing (β = -0.374, p < .001). Potential Challenges showed a small but significant positive association with performance, a pattern more consistent with a challenge-stressor interpretation than with a simple hindrance effect. The model explained 64.2% of the variance in teacher performance (R² = 0.642), with satisfactory predictive relevance (Q² > 0). We conclude that the success of teacher licensing in Pakistan is unlikely to rest on the policy document alone; it depends on how actively management translates the policy into everyday practice, and on how much of teachers' time is protected from non-instructional duties.