CPEC at Ten: Achievements, Failures, and Future Prospects of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (2015–2025)

Abstract

The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), formally opened in April 2015 with an initial USD 46-billion investment, which got increased to USD 62-billion, is the largest bilateral development project in Pakistan's post-independence history, and is the flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This article takes a holistic empirical and theoretical examination of CPEC over the entire first decade of its implementation between April 2015 and April 2025. The article, analyzing the corridor using Liberal Internationalism as the main analytical lens with dependency theory and international political economy lenses, assesses its performance in four key areas: energy and infrastructure development, industrial development through Special Economic Zones (SEZs), regional socio-economic equity, and governance transparency. The article finds that the first decade of CPEC is a complex experience of development with multiple internal variations based on the data gathered from the Pakistan Economic Survey, NEPRA State of Industry Reports, IMF Article IV consultations and the Annual Reports of CPEC Authority. The most quantifiable success of the corridor is the installation of around 8,000-8,400 Mega watts of electricity generation capacity, which has helped Pakistan reduce its electricity deficit. In the period between 2016 and 2018, when the construction industry was at its peak, the average rate of GDP growth was 5.0 per cent. These successes, however, are offset by the following realities: a power sector circular debt of around PKR 3.0 trillion by 2025; a decade-long deadlock over project modernisation of ML-1 railway line; opaque governance structures and weak parliamentary accountability. Eventually, the authors debated that Liberal Internationalism offers only incomplete theoretical explanatory advantage for the results of CPEC and that it must be complemented by a visual aspect that is sensitive to the distributional asymmetry and functional power instability. Recommendations for the second decade of CPEC are inclined towards evidence-based and have focused on resolving circular debt, ML-1 phasing and inclusion of Balochistan in development in particular.