Hydro-Hegemonic Dynamics: China-India Water Geopolitics and Pakistan's Downstream Vulnerabilities

Abstract

This study analyzes the hydro-hegemonic triangle between China, India and Pakistan, which is the formation of water geopolitics. China is the undisputed upstream owner of the river systems on the Tibetan plateau, India has two stakes: the upstream position in the Indus river of Pakistan; and the downstream position relative to China in the Brahmaputra; and Pakistan is extremely vulnerable on the downstream side. The study is based on qualitative approach and follows the perspective of Hydro-Hegemony (Zeitoun and Warner) to critically discuss the transboundary water treaties, dam construction data, hydrological records and recent policy developments in which the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was suspended by India in April 2025. The significant result is that the Medog Hydropower Station in the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra is China's biggest damsite investment, estimated to be over 60,000 MW, in upstream resource capture in South Asian hydropolitical history. With 95% of the surface water in the country flowing through the Indus system, the IWT suspension puts a strain on the water resources of Pakistan. The paper seeks to advocate a "triangulated" perspective on "hydro-hegemony," in which Chinese 'upstream' decisions feed into the strategic calculus of the Indian decision-makers, leading to a growing sense of insecurity for Pakistan. Results are policy-relevant for region-wide multilateral water governance reform, IWT modernisation and hydro-diplomacy for adaptation to climate change.