Minilateralism vs. Asean Centrality: Assessing the Diplomatic Costs of the AUKUS Partnership

Abstract

In this paper, the conflict between emergent multilateral security institutions and ASEAN centrality will be examined through the lens of the AUKUS alliance and its diplomatic consequences for Southeast Asian countries. In the context of growing United States-China strategic competition, this analysis examines the impact of AUKUS, a trilateral arrangement, on ASEAN's role as the convening and norm-setting institution in the Indo-Pacific. The study uses the CIVET framework of centeredness, inclusiveness, value, efficiency, and transparency to evaluate the impacts of institutions based on qualitative discourse analysis of the ASEAN communiqués, the official statements of member states, and ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey data of 2021-2026. The results suggest that AUKUS has a diplomatic cost to ASEAN, all polarization inside the bloc, the undermining of consensus-based diplomacy, and the threats to the principle of inclusivity and non-alignment. The article argues that AUKUS does not undermine ASEAN centrality but hastens institutional flux, underscoring the need to adopt adaptive and hybrid regional governance strategies.