Russia–Ukraine War: Impacts on NATO’s Strategic Posture toward Collective Defence and Deterrence (2022-2025)

Abstract

This research  looks at the extent to which the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war has changed the strategic doctrine of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) between 2022 and 2025. Post-Cold War NATO placed an increased emphasis on crisis management, cooperative security, and expeditionary operations, and no large-scale conventional warfare in Europe was seen as particularly likely. Nevertheless, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia that took place in February of 2022 was a systemic shock to the Euro-Atlantic system of security order. NATO has shifted from assurance to a more assertive deterrence approach, enhancing its forward presence, increasing defence spending, and adopting new technologies, representing a lasting change in European security. With the aid of a neorealist approach based on the structural realism theory as developed by Kenneth Waltz, the paper examines the alterations in the formal NATO strategic documents, its force posture, deterrence policies, and its decisions in enlargement. Comparative analysis of the Strategic Concepts of 2010 and 2022 reveals that there is a definite change in its doctrine. Russia is not described as a potential strategic partner anymore, but as the most important and direct threat to the security of the Allies. The results are that NATO post-2022 adaptation is a substantive structural change, as opposed to an incremental one. In line with the neorealist anticipations, the Alliance has realigned its strategic direction and deterrence structure against the newfound great-power rivalry in Europe.