Rise of China and its Implications on the Geo-Strategic Transformation of the Indo-Pacific Region

Abstract

This paper examines China's rise and its impact on the geo-strategic transformation of the Indo-Pacific region and the Western-led order, using the Balance of Power Theory. Strategic challenges in Southeast Asia have intensified as the US and China compete economically and militarily. The research analyzes power, domination, alliances, and partnerships, identifying four major trends in the Indo-Pacific: a gradual shift in the global order, a shift in economic and political power from West to East, the rise of the global South, and the emergence of a multipolar order. These trends signal significant changes in international power dynamics. China aims to lead the global South toward a multipolar order and reduce the influence of the Western-led order, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, where it seeks regional dominance. According to the Balance of Power Theory, states form alliances in economic, trade, and military spheres to counter adversaries. Robert Gilpin notes that great powers may go to war to achieve a balance of power and establish a new order, though current rivals are avoiding direct conflict. China counters US influence through the BRI, economic investments, and partnerships, while the US contains China through its Indo-Pacific Strategy and strengthens alliances such as QUAD, AUKUS, and I2U2 to balance China's power in Southeast Asia. Neither the US nor China currently dominates the region, as ASEAN states pursue hedging and balancing strategies. Should Southeast Asian states align more closely with either power, the balance in the Indo-Pacific could shift.