The Strategic Implications of the China–Russia Partnership in a Multipolar World Order: Challenges for Us Hegemony and Global Stability

Abstract

The current international system is undergoing rapid restructuring characterized by the diminishing of unipolarity and the rise of a multipolar world order. The most pivotal facet of this development is the deepening of the strategic alliance between Moscow and Beijing which increasingly contests the primacy of the United States and fundamentally reconfigures the prevailing systems of stability. This research provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the strategic implications of the China-Russia partnership in the context of hegemonic transitions and multipolarity with a particular emphasis on its impact on the hegemonic influence of the United States and systemic stability. This research is underpinned by neorealism, hegemonic stability theory, and power transition theory. While this partnership will, in some instances, be characterized as an alliance, this research will characterize the Beijing and Moscow partnership as an instance of strategic coordination and soft balancing. The operationalization of the China-Russia partnership will provide a parameter and encapsulate a variable for military, economic (including energy), and diplomatic (including alignment in international organizations) cooperation. The operationalizing of United States hegemony will include military (aerial, naval, and land), economic, and institutional dominance, while the operationalizing of global system stability will include the measurement of the frequency of conflict, regional tensions, and systemic volatility. This is a quantitative explanatory research study that utilizes a longitudinal, panel data set for the years 2005 to 2024. Research derives data from reputable sources including but not limited to SIPRI, the World Bank, United Nations voting records, and the Correlates of War dataset. Statistical techniques employed for hypothesis testing as well as exploratory research for determining relationships of interest include descriptive statics, correlation and multiple regressions. The results show a significant and negative correlation for the first hypothesis, which shows as Sino-Russian strategic cooperation strengthens, one of the indicators of U.S. global hegemony weakens. This shows the U.S. fails to act as a global unilateral actor when there is combined stratgeic cooperation from the two major powers. Findings show there is a positive correlation for the second hypothesis which posits as Sino-Russian strategic cooperation increases, global system uncertainty increases and U.S. hegemony instability increases. This shows that global system uncertainty is not stable and will remain that way until there is a formal a global strategic cooperation as there is no formal alliance. The study findings provide the result that the U.S. and the global system will have to adapt to greater system shocks and uncertainties with the improving strategic cooperation of China and Russia. This concludes with the cooperation enhancing the system as a whole (regarded as system level adaptations).