Navigating the Thucydides Trap: U.S.-China Competition, South Asian Rivalry, and Shifting Alliances in Asia

Abstract

The ongoing strategic rivalry between the United States and China is significantly reconfiguring alliances and antagonisms across Asia. This article applies the Thucydides Trap framework, the idea that a rising power challenging an established hegemon often risks war, to assess how U.S.-China competition is shaping new strategic alignments and exacerbating regional flashpoints. In South Asia, India’s growing defence partnership with the U.S. and Pakistan’s all-weather alliance with China have heightened tensions, as evidenced by the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, a four-day war that nearly spiraled into a broader great-power standoff. In this article, we examine how these evolving alignments, ranging from enhanced U.S.-India military cooperation to expanded China-Pakistan defense ties, are contributing to regional instability and escalation risks under a Thucydidean dynamic. Drawing on historical parallels and recent developments (including advanced military-technological deployments, crises, and nuclear doctrines), the discussion illustrates how the U.S.-China rivalry enhances India-Pakistan instability and accelerates the risks of uncontrolled escalation and nuclear use in South Asia. The article concludes with a policy-oriented exploration of the pathways for strengthening strategic stability, arguing for confidence-building measures, improved crisis communications, and adoption of a ‘nuclear responsibilities’ framework to mitigate the dangers of great-power entrapment in local conflicts. Notwithstanding the structural stresses of an ongoing power transition, deft diplomacy and robust regional mechanisms can help avoid following historical precedents and maintain peace in the Indo-Pacific.