Geopolitical Challenges to the Indus Water Treaty: Balancing National Interests and Regional Stability

Abstract

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, signed between India and Pakistan, is a landmark agreement in the geopolitics of South Asia that guarantees the allocation of the Indus River System's waters between both nations. This research explores the changing dynamics of the IWT with a view to understanding the geopolitical, environmental, and legal challenges that arose over the past few years. The research delves into the treaty's strategic function for stability at the regional level, India's growing infrastructure development on the Western rivers, and potential security concerns for Pakistan. The research also investigates the effects of novel non-traditional threats, including climate change, glacial melt, and volatile precipitation trends, on the viability of the treaty regime's modal framework. The assessment of the treaty's dispute resolution mechanism, with reference to the role of the third party through the mediation by the World Bank, is given through a critical examination to determine its implementability amidst changing power structures at the regional geopolitical context as well as environmental stressors. Adopting a qualitative case study approach, the research further investigates how changing hydropolitics of the region, especially the role of China as well as other external players, affects the course of the IWT going ahead. Adopting a legal, environmental, as well as strategic lens of analysis, research makes policy recommendations on how the treaty regime's institutional framework can become stronger through strengthened cooperative water governance at the local level. The research findings establish the importance of the IWT being adapted to meet contemporary challenges so it continues to serve as a tool for peace and stability at the regional level of South Asia.